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Home Interest Rate

To Your Wealth: Interest rate risk explained | Money

by Staff
June 12, 2022
in Interest Rate
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Since the beginning of the year, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has declined in value by almost 9% which may come as a surprise if you didn’t realize bonds could lose money. Today, I’d like to explain how bonds can lose their value when interest rates rise.

As a quick refresher, bonds are simply loans from a lender to a borrower. Unlike your mortgage where you’re the borrower, owning bonds means you’re the lender typically to corporations or government entities who will eventually pay you back the original loan amount plus interest. Just like a mortgage, there’s an interest rate charged to the borrower along with a specific length the payments will be made. One key difference is usually the principal amount isn’t repaid until the end of the loan rather than along the way. Until maturity, you’re just collecting interest payments.

As interest rates fluctuate, the value of the bond you own changes inversely to interest rates because there’s an active market of buyers and sellers constantly repricing the value of your bonds based on a variety of factors. The most relevant factor for today’s article is current interest rates versus the original interest rate on your bond.

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A simple example is the best way to understand this relationship. Imagine you own a bond paying one percent interest that you bought two years ago for $100. Fast forward to today and new bonds maturing at the same time as your original bond are earning 2.5% interest and selling for $100 each. If you wanted to sell your 1% bond, you would need to sell it for less than $100 to make it attractive to potential buyers. Perhaps you could sell it for $97 to make it competitive with a new bond. The decline in price represents the interest rate risk and would be a real loss if you sold the bond.

This risk around interest rates applies not only to individual bonds but also bond mutual funds which are comprised of a basket of individual bonds. The bond funds have more turnover of their underlying bonds so the proceeds from the matured bonds can be reinvested in new bonds at the higher rates which helps offset some of the price declines.

Besides understanding how rising interest rates affect the value of your bonds which increases the likelihood of sticking with your investment strategy, you could consider a couple of other strategies such as owning shorter term bonds which are less sensitive to interest rates. As rates increase, bank CDs or fixed annuities may become more attractive too. My colleague, Mike Haubrich wrote about Series I Savings Bonds in April which are also worth considering. No one likes to lose money on their investments but understanding why it happens may lessen the psychological impact.

Popular cars that are still (relatively) affordable

Popular Cars That Are Still (Relatively) Affordable





Popular Cars That Are Still (Relatively) Affordable

Photo Credit: Andrew Zaikovskyi / Shutterstock

Inflation has hit many sectors of the economy hard over the last year, but few categories can compare to the automotive industry.

Economic experts debate how much the current period of inflation has come from increased consumer demand and how much has been caused by constraints on supply. In the vehicle market, both forces are clearly at play. Low interest rates, federal stimulus payments, and better-than-expected economic conditions throughout the pandemic gave households more money to spend on big purchases like cars. But the unpredictable spread of COVID-19 has made it more difficult for carmakers to meet demand. Due to difficulties sourcing materials and keeping plants staffed amid the pandemic, both automotive parts manufacturers and car factories themselves have frequently been forced to shut down or operate at reduced capacity. As a result of these issues, new vehicle supply is down 59% compared to this time in 2021.

The scarcity of new vehicles has driven up prices for current models. But this has also had a major effect on prices in the market for pre-owned vehicles. With fewer new cars available, consumers have been competing for used models, which has sent used car prices increasing even faster.



Shutterstock


Used car prices rose at the fastest rate on record in Q1 this year





Used car prices rose at the fastest rate on record in Q1 this year

Year-over-year increases in used car prices have topped 30% for each of the last four quarters, reaching an all-time quarterly high of 39% in Q1 of 2022. Annual inflation in the used vehicle market had not topped 10% since 2010, early in the recovery from the last recession, and one would have to look to the Great Inflation period of the 1970s to see increases comparable to those in the current market.


Used minivans have experienced the largest price surge in recent months





Used minivans have experienced the largest price surge in recent months

And some types of used vehicles are seeing rates of inflation even greater than the overall average. Used SUVs, trucks, and crossovers—where carmakers have produced more inventory in recent years in response to changing consumer tastes—all have seen median price increases below 40% for the 2020 model year. Minivans and sedans, in contrast, have had the largest price increases in recent months at 47.5% and 45%, respectively. And with gas prices setting record highs in recent months, competition in these comparatively fuel-efficient categories could continue to keep prices elevated in the near future.

The current market is challenging for any buyer seeking out a used vehicle, but some recent makes and models have seen slower price increases than others. To determine the most popular cars that are most affordable, researchers at CoPilot calculated the difference between the current market price and the original price forecast for 100 of the most popular model year 2020 used vehicles on the market.

Here are 10 popular used cars that have gone up the least in price.


10. Jeep Wrangler Unlimited





10. Jeep Wrangler Unlimited

Photo Credit: Cheri Alguire / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +29.0%
  • Current price premium ($): +$10,126
  • Current price: $45,052
  • Original price forecast: $34,926



Shutterstock


9. Subaru Outback





9. Subaru Outback

Photo Credit: Everyonephoto Studio / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +28.9%
  • Current price premium ($): +$7,959
  • Current price: $35,480
  • Original price forecast: $27,521



Shutterstock


8. Toyota Tundra





8. Toyota Tundra

Photo Credit: RicoPatagonia / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +28.1%
  • Current price premium ($): +$10,652
  • Current price: $48,524
  • Original price forecast: $37,872



Shutterstock


7. Lexus RX





7. Lexus RX

Photo Credit: BoJack / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +27.4%
  • Current price premium ($): +$10,773
  • Current price: $50,144
  • Original price forecast: $39,371



Shutterstock


6. Lexus NX





6. Lexus NX

Photo Credit: Iurii Vlasenko / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +26.2%
  • Current price premium ($): +$8,380
  • Current price: $40,346
  • Original price forecast: $31,966



Shutterstock


5. BMW 5 Series





5. BMW 5 Series

Photo Credit: RoClickMag / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +26.1%
  • Current price premium ($): +$10,788
  • Current price: $52,165
  • Original price forecast: $41,377



Shutterstock


4. Toyota 4Runner





4. Toyota 4Runner

Photo Credit: lzf / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +25.3%
  • Current price premium ($): +$8,864
  • Current price: $43,932
  • Original price forecast: $35,068



Shutterstock


3. Honda Pilot





3. Honda Pilot

Photo Credit: Bandersnatch / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +24.7%
  • Current price premium ($): +$7,860
  • Current price: $39,653
  • Original price forecast: $31,793



Shutterstock


2. Subaru Crosstrek





2. Subaru Crosstrek

Photo Credit: Jfern Visions / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +24.3%
  • Current price premium ($): +$5,994
  • Current price: $30,683
  • Original price forecast: $24,689



Shutterstock


1. Acura MDX





1. Acura MDX

Photo Credit: Andrew Zaikovskyi / Shutterstock

  • Current price premium (%): +22.8%
  • Current price premium ($): +$8,315
  • Current price: $44,777
  • Original price forecast: $36,462



Shutterstock


Justus Morgan is president and fee-only financial planner with Financial Service Group Inc., a registered investment advisory firm at 4812 Northwestern Ave., online at ToYourWealth.com.

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